Home advantage?

[Duckstabber]

How do I measure/calculate the "average home advantage" in a given league? Imo the logical approach would be to divide the total number of goals scored by the home teams with the total number of goals scored by the away teams.

E.g. the Spanish Primera Division 2002/03: 590 home goals and 426 away goals. 590/426 = 1.38. 1.38 home goals scored for each away goal - thus the advantage is 0.38 goals.

This is of course only a rough estimate and I'd have to include previous seasons to make it more accurate. But I'm not even sure if this is a proper way to esimate the home advantage in football

Anybody out there who can help me

 

[clyde]

Ducks,
Think you have to have a look at each individual game matchup..goals at home versus goals away. Personally I just give the home team 1 goal advantage and take it from there...thats for 80% of the games,I disregard that when the games involve teams like Man U,R.Madrid plus derby matches.
I only bet on the home team when the odds are right and the numbers are not lopsided. That's all I did in that contest..home teams..period.
Only once did I break that rule and it lost !
Cheers.

 

[entropy]

But I'm not even sure if this is a proper way to esimate the home advantage in football

i doubt it is. i would imagine you should divide the total goals by the number of matches and then look at the difference ( not the ratio ).

i believe the home advantage has been estimated at .6 goal in EPL and .7 for the lower divisions.

 

[acw]

Imo the logical approach would be to divide the total number of goals scored by the home teams with the total number of goals scored by the away teams.

He! I find this an interesting statistic. Anyone willing to calculate the nos. for all the European Divisions and compare it with the total goal difference divided by the total no. of matches?
Maybe there is something in it. First time I see it.

 

[JackDee]

although i ve always been good at math and statistics, i dont really use them to quantify my handicapping, actually most of my handicapping is situational and qualitative. In this matter i would side with entropy as it does seem a lot more accurate mathematics wise to take the ratio of goals per game first and then the difference of home and away but...

imo this is pretty generic and not very interesting, sure enough it can indicate the difference between leagues where the home advantage matters most and those that matter least, but that's about it. Of course if one does use a lot of quantitative data for his capping they will have a way to figure that in too.

As far as i am concerned i take other things into account to with regards to the home advantage. As far as my local league goes i am more aware than aware of what the actual home advantage of every single team is, not only as a fixed "quantity", but in relation to the away team as well. In less known leagues or europian cups i take into account the tradition of the match up in terms of the two teams, as well as the different countries, as well as each style of football matches up against the other, (although the lines seem much more blurred now what with the e.u. tranfers). I also like to look at the quality of the crowd, the fans, some football teams have very intimidating stadia and even some of them have managed to get results out of the "12"th player, the home crowds, solely when in declining form. There are other factors too, but i gotta go have a drink, spend too long in this net cafe by the sea.